Penerapan Metode SARIMA untuk Peramalan Frekuensi Curah Hujan Bulanan di Sumatera Utara

khoirul Fajri

doi:10.26877/imajiner.v8i2.26717

Penerapan Metode SARIMA untuk Peramalan Frekuensi Curah Hujan Bulanan di Sumatera Utara

khoirul Fajri

Abstract

Variabilitas iklim ekstrem di Provinsi Sumatera Utara menuntut strategi mitigasi bencana yang presisi, mengingat tingginya risiko bahaya hidrometeorologi di wilayah tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membangun model peramalan curah hujan yang tangguh (robust) dengan mengintegrasikan data deret waktu (2010–2025) dari Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem menggunakan pendekatan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Melalui prosedur iteratif Box-Jenkins dan evaluasi kriteria informasi (AIC), model $SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)_{12}$ teridentifikasi sebagai estimator terbaik yang mampu menangkap pola musiman dan tren stokastik secara akurat, dengan validasi Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) sebesar 82,11 mm. Proyeksi untuk tahun 2026 mengindikasikan eskalasi curah hujan yang signifikan selama periode Oktober hingga Desember, yang menandai fase kritis bagi potensi banjir. Temuan ini memberikan dasar ilmiah kuantitatif bagi pembuat kebijakan untuk memperkuat sistem peringatan dini dan mengoptimalkan manajemen risiko bencana nasional.

Keywords

Curah Hujan; SARIMA; Peramalan; Sumatera Utara; Mitigasi Bencana.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.26877/imajiner.v8i2.26717